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I don't think jiraya should die...maybe get heavily wounded and then someone come to the rescue...anyway the 4 hogake had been konohas yellow flash right so in terms of speed naruto doesn't even match up to him but in terms of raw power naruto is better due to his chakra level...so you see in some terms naruto is better than the fourth but in other terms the fourth is a lot better...what i mean is that every ninja has his own weakness and powers
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Jiraiya should NOT die, but all sings on heaven and earth point that he will, sadly, we can do nothing about it.
Otherwise he wouldn't have survived all the jokes and boob talk with tsunade when they drank sake last time.
as for naruto surpassing 4th -> he will, he is kind of destined to achieve it and become the strongest hokage ever (I say strongest cause I doubt anyone would call him the brightest :P ).
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Go read the latest chapter, it's confirmed that the 4th is Naruto's dad. So finally no more dumbass replies in any thread.
Anyway I think that eventually yes Naruto will surpass the 4th, maybe not in every area but definately in some.